Four More Weeks of Winter

If you feel like you're wading through waist-deep sludge, you are. The December 26th options expiry was supposed to be the 'big one,' the moment the market finally picked a direction.

If you feel like you're wading through waist-deep sludge, you are.

The December 26th options expiry was supposed to be the "big one," the moment the market finally picked a direction. Instead, the powers that be took a page out of the U.S. Congressional playbook. They looked at a mounting crisis and decided to kick the can down the road. Eh, that's next month's problem.

Here is the updated reality of our "free market":

The Setup

• The New Deadline: Mark January 30th on your calendar. The expiry volume has ballooned even further, because why solve a problem today when you can make it exponentially more explosive next month?

• The Coiled Spring: We are watching a spring being wound with pathological intensity. The price is being suppressed so intentionally. They can only move the goalposts so many times before they run out of field.

• The 2026 "Prophecy": All those analysts screaming about a 2026 mega-breakout? This is the tension they're talking about. It's a violent move looking for a place to happen.

The Ground Reality

Until the spring snaps, expect more of the same thrilling stagnation. We may continue crabbing sideways through January.

• The $90k Ceiling: Every time BTC breathes on $90k, people ape into long positions, only to be promptly liquidated by the exchanges and firms like Jane Street, Binance, Wintermute and Coinbase. It's a predictable cycle of harvesting retail hope for profits.

My Advice

Unless you enjoy donating your capital to market makers, tread lightly with perps. If you must trade this range, stop hunting for the god candle. Set your limit sells, take modest wins, and stop giving the exchanges a reason to celebrate. Or just chill, stack, hold spot and LST's and wait out the storm.

Price Movements on the Week

• $BTC - Up 0.44% (-4.83% 30 days)
• $SOL - Up 0.48% (-11.97% 30 days)
• $ETH - Down 0.61% (-4.22% 30 days)
• $ZEC - Up 23.84% (+13.43% 30 days)
• $HYPE - Up 8% (-27.17% 30 days)
• Total Crypto Market Cap - Up 0.4% (-4.9% 30 days) - We are under 3T.

Whole lotta nothing burger. The Deribit Digital Asset options for December 26, expired without much movement. This was a record-large event with approximately $23-27 billion in notional value across BTC, ETH and SOL options. What happened to the volatility expected? As explained by @david_eng_mba, instead of letting positions expire (which unpins the price), the market executed a massive, coordinated roll into January 30th 2026.

In a move mirroring U.S. governmental budget decisions, market participants deferred the problem to the following month. Full details available at: https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2004622478925349248?s=20

Trust Wallet Security Incident

Self custody faced another setback. Trust Wallet browser extension was compromised this week, resulting in over $7 million in user losses for those running version 2.68. Affected users should complete the compensation form at: https://be-support.trustwallet.com

If you use Trust Wallet, follow these steps:

• Step 1: Do NOT open Trust Wallet Browser Extension v2.68 on your desktop device to ensure security and prevent further issues.

• Step 2: Access Chrome Extensions panel by copying this shortcut: chrome://extensions/?id=egjidjbpglichdcondbcbdnbeeppgdph

• Step 3: Switch the toggle to "Off" below Trust Wallet if still enabled.

• Step 4: Click "Developer mode" in the upper right corner.

• Step 5: Press the "Update" button on the left upper corner.

• Step 6: Verify version number is 2.69, the latest secure version.

Regulatory Developments

The Senate pushed the Market Structure bill into 2026. Michael Selig (former SEC Crypto Task Force chief counsel) was sworn in as the new CFTC Chairman this month, concurrent with the Senate Banking Committee delaying crypto market structure legislation until early 2026 due to negotiations over DeFi and AML rules.

• Still Bullish outlook: With Selig at CFTC and Paul Atkins (also pro-innovation) leading the SEC, the industry gains sympathetic leaders at both key regulators. They can provide significant regulatory clarity through guidance, rulemaking, and coordination.

Solana Ecosystem Updates

Solflare introduced prediction markets with ZERO additional fees, powered by Kalshi and enabled by dflow. Industry observers note that wallets without perps and prediction markets are considered outdated.

Mert (@mert) has been developing solprice.now, showcasing SOL price, timeline news, price predictions, open leverage data and more. Concurrently, Helius developed Orb Markets, positioning it as an improved alternative to Solscan and CoinMarketCap for transaction checking, token purchasing, and unified platform access. Users familiar with Solscan understand the urgent need for enhanced options.

The Solana Foundation launched Kora, a gasless relayer enabling applications to sponsor transaction fees, permitting users to pay with any token instead of holding SOL, and relocating transaction signing into secure, isolated environments. This reduces onboarding friction for new users and facilitates Web2-like experiences while maintaining full on-chain functionality. No SOL required.

Solstice Protocol Issues

Solstice experienced turbulence this week. Their ICO fell significantly short of expectations. Subsequently, $USX depegged to $0.92. Sell pressure on Orca and Raydium exceeded available liquidity, causing secondary market price deterioration. However, 1:1 redemptions remained functional on their platform, and eUSX maintained its peg. This situation created arbitrage opportunities. Following liquidity reinjection into secondary markets, the peg has since stabilized.

Airdrop Opportunity

Huma Season 2 airdrop part 2 is now claimable. The distribution occurred in two phases; remaining tokens are available for claiming, restaking, or selling. Users who missed initial claims can retrieve combined amounts. Visit: https://claim.huma.finance/

(Note: USA-based users require VPN access)

Cardano Updates

Charles Hoskinson announced departure from the X platform, leaving behind a "twin" (presumably an automated repost bot) to share announcements from new venues: Midnight Discord for weekly AMAs, YouTube for livestreams, and long-form written content. Hoskinson cited platform toxicity following recent litigation regarding vibe code network hacking. He credited his departure announcement with a Star Trek video reference.

Governance and Protocol Developments

Aave drama continues, with token versus equity debates anticipated to intensify in 2026. Jake Chervinsky published comprehensive analysis at https://blog.variant.fund/tokens-versus-equity

Entering the post-Gensler regulatory environment opens experimentation possibilities for token/equity models, though the Clarity Act passage remains necessary for comprehensive protocol options clarity.

Uniswap conducted significant governance voting: 125,342,017 YES votes versus 742 NO votes. Forthcoming changes include burning 100 million UNI, enabling fee switches, redirecting lab focus toward protocol development, and discontinuing frontend fees.

Banking Sector Integration

The OCC approved federal trust charters for Circle's "First National Digital Currency Bank" and "Ripple National Trust Bank," plus state charter conversions for Paxos, BitGo, and Fidelity Digital Assets. This represents substantial progress integrating cryptocurrency enterprises into regulated U.S. banking infrastructure.

National Trust Bank Charter Details

These limited-purpose federal banking licenses issued by the OCC authorize fiduciary activities including:

• Custody and safekeeping of digital and traditional assets
• Trust services
• Related operations like stablecoin reserve management and blockchain settlement

Limitations

Unlike full-service national banks, trust banks cannot:

• Accept deposits
• Offer checking/savings accounts
• Lend money
• Access FDIC insurance

This development legitimizes cryptocurrency ecosystem components including custody and stablecoins, subjecting them to federal supervision. While supporting safer scaling and institutional confidence, it emphasizes that U.S. crypto growth increasingly occurs within regulated parameters.

Brand Marketing

Pudgy Penguins invested over $500,000 in a Vegas Sphere advertisement during Christmas week, omitting cryptocurrency, NFT, or token references—a pure brand recognition strategy. While potentially less impactful than Super Bowl advertising, this preceded similar moves from Ansem and WIF.

Yield Tracking

Fundamental launched dashboards comparing stable yields across Solana platforms: Elemental, Lulo, Jup Lend, Kamino, and Drift. Operating as a public good for yield tracking across Solana, Fundamental is managed by Elemental DeFi, a nascent USDC yield protocol currently supporting 65 users with $2.1 million locked. The platform appears positioned to compete with Lulo and other aggregators for set-and-forget compounding gains strategies.

Privacy Concerns

Recent crypto social developments emphasize wallet tracking capabilities. Phantom Terminal encourages users to "analyze trader activity and identify historical trends" through follower monitoring. Privacy advocates express concerns regarding this surveillance-oriented trajectory.

Thanks for reading,

Stay Free

• Ebullition